SCENARIO ANALYIS
Let’s take a look at the exciting future of recreational fishing! There’s a great amount of uncertainty when determining what lies ahead, and here we’ll check out four possible scenarios depending on two chosen factors. The first one being the impact of global warming, both on society as a whole and on our beloved fishing waters. The second one being the technological adaptation and development in the sport fishing industry.
Global warming:
In this day and age, global warming either directly or indirectly impacts almost every aspect of life. Legislation, consumer habits and more are influenced by the will to combat the effects of global warming. Furthermore, global warming has the potential to disturb the ecosystems on which we rely, and ruin the prospect of fishing for us all. Whilst bolstering a low uncertainty of occurring, the extent of the impact of global warming is yet unknown but may be of great magnitude according to experts. Therefore it is an essential part of our scenario analysis.
To the right of the matrix, we regard future scenarios where the warming of the sea has led to great changes in society and in the ecosystems on the Swedish west coast. The growth of invasive species, less food, recurring heat waves as well as physiological impacts have made the population of sea trout among others to start to diminish. To the left, the effects are small if not non-existent and fishing continues as it has always done.
Technical development & adaptation:
Fishing is of a simple nature - the required technology to practice it is nothing more than a rod and some bait. Nonetheless, like most things in society today, even the fishing industry is experiencing digitalization with companies integrating new technology in their products. The recent years have brought innovative ideas with companies like Fiskher exploring new ways to make recreational fishing even better through technological breakthroughs. However, the extent to which the fishermen are willing to adapt these innovations into their sacred sport is unknown. Hence, as the uncertainty is large and the potential level of impact is equally great, the inclusion of technological adaptation and development in the scenario matrix was obvious.
At the top of the matrix, the technical literacy among fishermen is high and they are keen to adopt new and existing technologies such as digital apps, sensors and data-analysis. Digital transformation in the sport fishing industry and community has led to a shift in the fishing patterns, where fishermen heavily rely on data-driven technologies to find the best fishing waters and to increase their catch. At the bottom, technical literacy is low and fishermen are slow to adapt to new technologies. The fishing patterns of sportfishing remain similar and fishermen rely on traditional fishing techniques to find and catch fish.
Scenario A
Tech galore
This is a scenario in which global warming has meager effects, especially on sportfishing. On the other hand; both the technological development and adaptation in the industry is thriving. Recreational fishermen are less motivated to participate in citizen science projects, such as ocean data collection, due to the absence of its impact on their beloved hobby. They are however eager to implement sensors, drones or other tech that measure and seek peak conditions for respective fishes in order to find better fishing waters and increase catches.
Scenario B
Twin transition
In this scenario the effects of global warming are very substantial, on society as a whole but also on our beloved sport of recreational fishing where the populations of popular fish has diminished greatly. Meanwhile, we’ve seen a tech-boom in our industry, where new products such as sonars and apps utilizing data science have transformed the way we fish forever, making us more and more connected with both each other and with the sea itself. In this scenario, there is a possibility for an incredible twin transition. The horrible effects of global warming has made stakeholders aware of the severity of the situation, and with the already high tech literacy in the industry, recreational fishermen are next up to become greatly involved with the science and tasks necessary to secure this beautiful hobby for the next generations to come.
Scenario C
Calm waters
In this particular situation, global warming has had a minimal effect on the sportfishing industry, and there is limited adoption of technological advancements. As a result, there is little interest in scientific research and technical literacy is low among fishermen. Tempura has great potential and efforts to improve tech literacy are needed. Our primary focus would be on marketing efforts to persuade stakeholders about the value of Tempura to the individual fishermen, as fish location with temperature measurement, location and speed.
Scenario D
Slow adoption
As the impact of global warming on sportfishing has proved to be of substantial magnitude the demand for scientific research and data collection increases. But as fishermen are slow to accept new technology the feasibility of data collection is low. Therefore the tech literacy of the fishermen must be improved to allow them to gather the necessary data. This is where Tempura comes into the picture. Its simple design and pedagogically superior assembly instructions will not only help fill the gap in tech literacy, but simultaneously help gather the data needed by the scientific community and hopefully lead the way into a Twin Transition.